Fare Buckets discussion 2023 Q4 - 2024

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Over the years I've found that sleeper buckets are in a rough geometric progression, or each higher bucket is some multiple of the previous one. But the ratio between two adjacent buckets is not constant and increases slightly as the values of successive buckets increase.

Using the SWC/TE Roomette fares (above) as an example, the ratio between the top two buckets is 1.140 and between successively lower pairs of buckets the ratio slowly decreases down to the two lowest buckets found is where it's 1.111. Finding the nth root of the ratio of highest to lowest buckets found yields the average ratio of those (in this case) seven buckets. The root in this case is 6 because there are 6 steps between those seven known buckets. The 6th root of 1624 ÷ 796 is 1.126 and 796 ÷ 1.126 = 707.

This same method was used to estimate the 6 buckets not found between and high and low bucket FR on the Auto Train, but here the 7th root of 1199 ÷ 530 was used because there are 7 steps between those two buckets. How did I know those two buckets found were the high and low? By comparison with those on the previous chart.

There a a few other other ways of estimating a missing bucket, and they give slightly different and usually higher values. Perhaps (in this case) 796 ÷ 1.111 = 716 is a better estimate, but it's just an estimate of the SWC/TE low bucket Roomette fare. Until somebody finds the actual low bucket being offered we won't know for sure. But does anyone really need to know for sure? I, for one, am not anal enough to waste time looking for it. And for all we know, it may never be offered - ever!

Years ago, Coach fares rose in an arithmetic progression in which the difference between successive buckets was some fairly constant value. But coach fares now also rise in a geometric progression as seen in those for the Palmetto. Didn't analyze it's BC fares.

Hope this helps.
Thanks, I was pretty much just curious. I agree it yields a close enough approximation to be useful, which for me is to know about where the lowest possible fare could be in order to judge the fares presented for potential trips. Like you, I doubt we'll seldom, if ever, see a lowest bucket roomette on the TE with only one sleeper. I am kind of surprised they aren't showing up occasionally on the SW Chief though, with it more inventory.

As an aside, I really like the railsforless.us graph, for fares over the requested period. It let's you see in a glance if there are variations.
 
Like you, I doubt we'll seldom, if ever, see a lowest bucket roomette on the TE with only one sleeper. I am kind of surprised they aren't showing up occasionally on the SW Chief though, with it more inventory.
But wouldn't the TE/SL combination from CHI to LAX have just as much sleeper inventory as the SWC? But then, it's got only 3/7 the frequency of the SWC.
 
But wouldn't the TE/SL combination from CHI to LAX have just as much sleeper inventory as the SWC? But then, it's got only 3/7 the frequency of the SWC.
When the TE low bucket roomette was $623 just six months ago, that low bucket could be found on many dates. As I mentioned in an earlier post,I have checked every date for eleven months and the lowest I could find was $989. They still had only one sleeper at $623 . The SW Chief was $600, then $620, then $621 until recently, senior fare. Lowest I can find now is $767.
 
Yield management. One has probably sold more of its inventory than the other on your planned day.

According to @niemi24s' chart, the bucket price points are the same for both trains.

I find the situation a little (not a lot) unusual, as the Eagle had less capacity/inventory and the Eagle is higher more often than not as a result.
 
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